The ecb september rate hike is now the main view in a Reuters poll, with 83% of economists expecting a 25 basis-point move next month.
The poll showed that 57 of 69 economists expect the European Central Bank to lift the deposit facility rate to 2.50% in September. That share rose from 72% before the July meeting. It also increased from 65% in June.
Meanwhile, most economists in the poll saw rates holding steady after that move. The findings showed that 80% expect the deposit facility rate to remain at 2.50% by year-end.
ECB September Rate Hike Gains Support
The August edition of the Reuters poll also showed a longer hold in rates. According to the survey, 63% of economists expect the deposit facility rate to stay at 2.50% until at least the third quarter of 2027.
That points to a wider consensus for one more increase, followed by a pause. However, the source article said the majority of economists then expect the ECB to stand pat through the end of the year. It added that many also see no further rate changes through at least the middle of next year.
Rate Path Seen Flat After September
The source article also noted that the ECB had previously said interest rates were somewhat in neutral territory around the 1.75% to 2.25% region. Therefore, a move to 2.50% would place policy only marginally in restrictive territory.
For now, the article said policymakers remain firm in saying they do not see second-round effects on inflation. As a result, it said they are not likely to react too quickly to that risk.
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Source: InvestingLive
