New Zealand Q1 GDP is expected to show a sharp pickup in growth, with the median market forecast pointing to a 0.9% quarterly rise. That compares with 0.2% growth in the December quarter. On an annual basis, economists see growth easing to 1.1% from 1.3% because a strong result a year earlier lifted the base.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand projected 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement. ANZ and Westpac also forecast 1.0%. Meanwhile, BNZ expects 0.9%, ASB sees 0.8%, and Kiwibank stands at 0.7%.
New Zealand Q1 GDP Drivers
Economists say the data should reflect a real recovery in the first months of 2026. Manufacturing may provide one of the biggest lifts. Food output got support from high milk collections, a rebound in fruit and wine production, and firm machinery activity.
Wholesale trade, professional services, retail, and tourism also likely helped headline growth. However, construction appears to be the main weak spot. Residential and non-residential building work fell about 3.5% in the quarter.
Westpac flagged one key risk in reading the result. It said seasonal adjustment methods used by Statistics NZ may add about 0.4 percentage points to the March quarter figure. As a result, Westpac estimates underlying growth may be closer to 0.6%.
July RBNZ Review in Focus
The March result is the last major data release before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reviews the OCR on July 8. The bank kept the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in May after a 3-3 committee vote. It has also signalled that a tightening cycle is nearing.
However, economists say the bigger issue is the next quarter. The Iran conflict, which intensified through late February and March, is expected to weigh more heavily on June quarter data. Notably, at least one major bank forecasts a 0.3% contraction in Q2, even if the New Zealand Q1 GDP report shows solid momentum.
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