US retail sales May data is due later on Wednesday, with markets looking for a 0.5% monthly rise in headline sales and the same gain in the ex-autos reading.
The control group may draw the most attention. That measure strips out autos, gasoline, and building materials. Economists expect it to rise 0.4% from the prior month. However, the report does not adjust retail sales for inflation.
On an annual basis, retail sales rose 4.87% in April. That pace only slightly topped inflation.
US Retail Sales May Forecasts
Bank of America expects a stronger result than the broader consensus. Based on its card data, the bank forecasts a 0.8% increase in sales and a 0.7% rise in the control group.
Even so, the market may not react much to the release. The source article said traders could stay cautious because the Federal Open Market Committee decision is due at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference 30 minutes later.
USD JPY in Focus Before Fed
USD/JPY was last down 15 pips at 160.30. Therefore, the pair is one to watch during the session, with attention on the Fed decision and the chance of intervention.
The source article also said the retail sales data may look dated. Gasoline had taken up a bigger share of consumer spending because of the war. Meanwhile, crude had fallen back to $76, which the article said could change June data and consumer confidence if that level holds.
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