China trade report and New Zealand’s QSBO are due Tuesday, with both releases set to test the recovery story in Asia.
Economists are watching New Zealand’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion for the second quarter at 2200 GMT. However, Westpac said the key signal may come from the pattern inside the survey, not the headline result. The survey period crossed the mid-June ceasefire, so early and late responses may show very different views.
Westpac said that split could give the Reserve Bank more insight than an average reading. In particular, it is watching whether firms kept pricing plans high even as oil prices moved back toward pre-conflict levels. ASB also said the report should give an early view on how firms passed on cost pressure flagged in the first quarter.
China Trade Report in Focus
China’s June trade data will follow a few hours later, although the release time is not fixed. A Reuters poll showed economists expect export growth to ease to 18.2% from 19.4% in May. Even so, that would still mark solid growth.
The same poll showed imports may slow to 24% from 27.4%. Meanwhile, South Korean export data, often used as a guide to Chinese import demand, pointed to strength in semiconductors rather than a broad rise in domestic consumption. The trade surplus is forecast to widen to $120.60 billion.
NZ QSBO and Recovery Test
The New Zealand survey also comes with a warning on timing effects. Westpac said the first-quarter survey, which ran from early March to early April, masked how sharply confidence fell in later responses tied to the US-Iran conflict. Therefore, analysts see a similar risk in the second quarter because the survey window again covered a major event.
ASB said the report should also add detail on capacity limits after labour scarcity and utilisation both strengthened earlier in the year. On China, economists said the China trade report will act as a lead signal before Wednesday’s GDP release. Forecasts vary widely, with some international banks looking for growth near 20% and several Chinese domestic houses expecting figures closer to half that.
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