Gemini prediction markets brought in about $500,000 in second-quarter revenue, even as Cameron Winklevoss called the segment the platform’s biggest near-term growth opportunity.
Gemini Space Station posted a net loss of $107.7 million for the quarter, according to results published on August 13. Revenue rose 37% from a year earlier to $45.5 million and beat analyst estimates. However, assets on the platform dropped 54% to $8.4 billion amid lower crypto valuations and institutional custody outflows.
Shares fell about 6% in after-hours trading after the report. Earlier, the stock had closed up 3% in the regular session. The shares have also slid from an intraday high of $45.89 on their Nasdaq debut in September 2025 to about $4.06.
Gemini Prediction Markets Revenue Gap
Winklevoss said prediction markets remain “the largest near-term growth opportunity on the platform.” He pointed to the sports season in the second half of the year. However, the business contributed only about 1% of Gemini’s total revenue in the quarter.
Trading activity grew fast, though. Event contracts traded on the platform topped 225 million in total since the product launched in December 2025. That figure marked a 93% quarter-on-quarter increase. Gemini, however, did not disclose the dollar volume tied to those contracts.
Third-party estimates put cumulative turnover at about $24 million as of July. That was far below Kalshi’s reported notional volume of more than $100 billion. It was also smaller than the volumes that Kalshi and Polymarket recorded around the 2026 World Cup alone.
Licences and Broader Product Push
Gemini spent five years seeking the approvals for this business. In December 2025, it won a Designated Contract Market licence from the CFTC. As a result, its Gemini Titan unit could offer event contracts to U.S. customers. Then, in April 2026, it added a Derivatives Clearing Organization licence to clear its own contracts.
Meanwhile, Gemini has cut about a third of its staff over the past year and lost several senior executives. In May, the Winklevoss brothers put $100 million of their own money into the company. Management has described the last nine months as a period of product rebuilding rather than a return to profitability.
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Source: Finance Magnates
