XTB 2026 profit forecast rose to PLN 1.5 billion from PLN 1 billion at Noble Securities, according to analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski, who also expects PLN 403 million in second-quarter profit.
The new annual view is 50% above Noble’s January projection. However, Chrzanowski told Parkiet that XTB’s share price already reflects many positive outcomes. The higher estimate came after XTB posted a record first quarter and after elevated volatility in commodities and equity indices during the second quarter.
XTB 2026 Profit Forecast Follows Record Q1
XTB reported PLN 535 million in first-quarter profit for 2026. Therefore, adding Chrzanowski’s PLN 403 million Q2 estimate implies about PLN 938 million for the first half. To reach PLN 1.5 billion for the full year, XTB would need about PLN 562 million in the second half, or roughly PLN 281 million per quarter.
Chrzanowski said two quarters with such high volatility were an anomaly. He also said recurring net profit is lower than what XTB will likely show in Q2. Meanwhile, he expects XTB to add 320,000 to 330,000 new clients in the second quarter, above management’s 2026 goal of 250,000 to 290,000 per quarter.
Earlier Estimates Missed Reported Results
The revised outlook follows three quarterly forecasts from Chrzanowski that came in above XTB’s later results. For the third quarter of 2025, Noble expected PLN 190 million, but XTB reported PLN 53.2 million. Finance Magnates said that result also missed the PLN 154 million market consensus.
In the fourth quarter, Noble forecast PLN 205 million, while XTB later gave a preliminary figure of PLN 180.5 million. For the first quarter of 2026, Chrzanowski expected PLN 650 million, compared with XTB’s reported PLN 535 million. Although that call correctly pointed to a record quarter, it was still almost PLN 115 million too high.
His client estimates were closer. Before the Q3 2025 release, he projected about 200,000 new clients, while XTB later reported almost 222,000. Noble also projected about 865,000 new clients for the full year, and XTB’s official total was 864,286.
A separate FM Intelligence dataset estimated 851,000 active accounts in Q2 2026, down 1% from the prior quarter. However, the dataset tracks activity and volume, not revenue or trade profitability.
You can access our other news on brokers and global market developments here.
Source: Finance Magnates
